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/www.dreamworksfansite.com/ad/180x135_wotw_tom.gif"" align=""left"" border=""1"">Wall Street analysts expect DreamWorks Animation SKG to score a hit with its upcoming film
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/madagascar/"">Madagascar but remain split on whether the animated feature will bring in enough at the box office to drive a revaluation of the studio's shares.
Shares in DreamWorks have risen 40 percent since its Oct. 27 public offering, but the studio trades at less than half the earnings multiple of rival Pixar Animation Studios Inc on the view that it has not established the same record as a reliable hit-maker.
DreamWorks on Wednesday was trading at a ratio of 21 times forecast 2005 earnings, compared with Pixar's 48.
But some analysts said that skew in studio valuations could start to change if
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/madagascar/"">Madagascar surprises Hollywood watchers by taking in more than $175 million to $200 million at theaters after it opens on a holiday weekend in May.
DreamWorks Chief Executive Jeffrey Katzenberg told analysts last week that the film had performed better than the studio's monster hit
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/shrek2/"">Shrek with test audiences in California.
Katzenberg cautioned that predicting box office performance was tricky, but analysts have said the film has a clear shot at a strong opening with no other major family offering debuting within three weeks after
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/madagascar/"">Madagascar, and no animated film until
Howl's Moving Castle arrives on June 10.
Star Wars III: Revenge of the Sith, which opens a week earlier than
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/madagascar/"">Madagascar, appears to be the only direct competitor for young children going into the summer movie season.
A win with
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/madagascar/"">Madagascar would go far in changing analysts' view of DreamWorks as a ""creatively volatile company,"" and could justify a target share price of $45 compared to Tuesday's close of $39.80, Fulcrum Global Partners analyst Rich Greenfield said.
Greenfield estimated the film's domestic box office take at $200 million and $240 million at the international box office, putting it in league with
Spider-Man and
The Lion King.
Lehman Brothers analyst Anthony DiClemente raised first-quarter earnings estimates for DreamWorks based partly on expectations for
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/madagascar/"">Madagascar.
In a note to clients, DiClemente said he expected the film to capture $175 million at U.S. box offices and left open the possibility that his estimate could be ""conservative,"" based on ""generally positive commentary regarding
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/madagascar/"">Madagascar.
But Sanders Morris Harris analyst David Miller cautioned that Fox's
Robots had fallen short of some expectations despite the lack of competition from other family films at its debut earlier this month. DreamWorks, he said, needed a
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/shrek/"">Shrek-sized hit to rise above the fray in 2006.
Analysts agree that Glendale, California-based DreamWorks faces tougher competition in 2006 from at least eight major animated features due out from rival studios.
I have no doubt ('Madagascar') will be a solid performer. What's built into the stock is that it does better than stellar, Miller said.
/animation.dreamworksfansite.com/madagascar/"">Madagascar features voice performances by Ben Stiller, Chris Rock, David Schwimmer and Jada Pinkett Smith as four animals who escape from a New York zoo and are sent to the wilds of Madagascar, where they go into culture shock.
Source: /www.reuters.com/"">Reuters."